Premier League GW38 Predictions Today
Free AI Football Tips & xG Analysis

Newly-crowned champions Arsenal close their title-winning campaign at Selhurst Park, with both sides having one eye on European finals. Arsenal's away record is elite (1.94 PPG, 56% win rate), but they've won their last 14 final-day fixtures - a 21-year unbeaten streak. Palace, meanwhile, have never lost a final-day home game at Selhurst (W8 D4 from 12). Rotation is heavy for both - Arteta will rest stars before the Champions League final in Budapest, while Glasner prepares for the Conference League. Arsenal's away xG of 1.55 vs Palace's home xGA of 1.26 still suggests goals, but expect a tepid final-day affair. Both managers prioritise injury avoidance.

Pep Guardiola's 593rd and final game as Manchester City boss, with the legendary Catalan boasting a 70.9% win rate at the club. City have won 19 of their last 20 home games against Villa, scoring 17 goals across the last six Etihad meetings. Villa arrive fresh from Europa League glory (3-0 vs Freiburg) and have already secured Champions League qualification - Emery admitted his selection won't be easy after the trophy parade. City's home form is dominant (3.11 PPG, 78% win rate), and Guardiola has won his final league game in 8 of 9 seasons. With Haaland chasing his 30th league goal and a perfect Pep send-off scripted, an entertaining home win looks the script writer's pick.

Michael Carrick's first official game as Manchester United's permanent boss, and the Red Devils arrive at third place secured and pressure-free. Brighton have won 7 of their last 10 meetings with United in all competitions including the recent 2-1 PL win at Old Trafford in January 2026. Brighton's home form is strong (1.83 PPG, 50% win rate) while United's away record - though impressive 4th-best in the league - shows some fragility (BTTS in 78% of away games). The H2H angle of 70% BTTS combined with both teams' attacking lineups make this a goal-friendly fixture. Fernandes chasing the all-time PL assists record adds further edge. Brighton's home xG of 1.64 vs United's leaky 1.44 away xGA points to goals on both ends.

A relegation shootout between two doomed clubs - Burnley 19th and Wolves 20th. Both teams are already heading to the Championship, with all motivation gone. Wolves have the worst attack in the division (26 goals in 37 games) and the worst away record (5 points from 18, no wins). Burnley have the worst home record (12 points from 18). The H2H is tight historically (8 wins for Burnley, 7 Wolves, 6 draws), but Burnley beat Wolves 3-2 at Molineux earlier this season. Wolves have scored just 7 away goals all season - the question is whether they'll score at all. Expect a low-quality, low-scoring affair with neither side firing in attack.

Marco Silva's reportedly final game at Fulham (Benfica-bound) against Eddie Howe's Newcastle in a contest with no European stakes. Fulham have strong home form (1.78 PPG at Craven Cottage, 56% win rate), winning 10 of 14 Premier League games at home this season. Newcastle's away record is worryingly poor (0.94 PPG, 22% win rate), and their 8-game clean sheet drought continues. Despite the H2H favouring Newcastle (14-10), the venue tilts strongly toward Fulham. Newcastle have failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 straight, while Fulham's home xG of 1.51 vs Newcastle's away xGA of 1.43 suggests both teams will score. Anthony Gordon's snub adds drama to Howe's selection.

Liverpool's disastrous campaign closes at Anfield with their top-five spot still on the line. Mohamed Salah and Andy Robertson make farewell appearances - the emotional storyline could lift the Reds despite recent struggles (one win in last four). Liverpool conceded 8 in their last 3, but at home they're more resilient (1.06 conceded per game). Brentford come into this winless in 4 away games and have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 on the road. The Bees did pull off a 3-2 win at the Gtech in October, but historically Liverpool dominate at Anfield (5 straight wins before that one). Salah-storyline plus Anfield emotion should drag Liverpool over the line.

Bournemouth chase Champions League qualification on the final day, sitting 6th and 3 points behind Liverpool with a club-record 17-game unbeaten run (W8 D9) - only Bayern Munich's 19 is longer across Europe's top-5. Forest are 16th with nothing to play for but pride after their Europa League heartbreak. Iraola's side have won 3 of 4 visits to the City Ground and have the best defensive away record in 2026 (5 goals conceded). Forest are unbeaten in 7 of last 8 H2H (D3 L4 from 7 PL meetings) but their recent form has been a wake-up call with the United loss. Bournemouth's class shows in their away xG of 1.49 vs Forest's home xGA of 1.34. Cherries to keep CL dream alive.

Sunderland chase a first European berth in 53 years on Wearside, requiring victory and other results to fall their way. Chelsea sit a place above in 8th with mixed motivation - they secured the Conference League playoff spot via FA Cup losses elsewhere. Sunderland have already beaten Chelsea this season (October 2-1 win), and their home form is solid (1.67 PPG, 44% win rate). Chelsea have been winless away since early March (excluding the Tottenham win), and even that was scrappy. The H2H favours Chelsea historically (16-5), but in this season's form context, Sunderland have the genuine motivation edge. Le Fee in form, Xhaka chasing milestones. Sunderland to edge a tight, well-balanced game.

Tottenham's survival mission ends at home against an Everton side with nothing but pride at stake. Spurs need just a draw (or even a defeat without a West Ham 12-goal swing) to retain Premier League status. The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has been their nemesis this season - just 12 home points, joint-lowest with Burnley. Everton arrive on a poor run, winless in last 6 with at least 2 goals conceded each time. The H2H favours Spurs heavily - they've won the last 4 home meetings 13-1 on aggregate, including a 3-0 win earlier this season and a 4-0 in August 2024. Richarlison is in form (11 PL goals) and needs one more contribution for personal best. Spurs to secure survival in entertaining fashion.

West Ham's 14-year Premier League stay hangs in the balance - they must beat Leeds and hope Spurs lose to Everton. The Hammers have lost just one of their last 7 home PL games (W3 D3) but were dreadful at Newcastle last week (3-1 loss). Leeds are safe and in form - 8 games unbeaten (W4 D4), their longest streak since 2001. Daniel Farke's switch to a back-five has transformed them. The H2H is tight - Leeds won 2-1 at Elland Road in October but West Ham beat them 3-1 at home in May 2023. Survival desperation should give the Hammers the competitive edge, with Castellanos in form and Bowen creating chances. Expect a goal-fest in an end-to-end contest.

A late-season London derby at Stamford Bridge, with Chelsea the slight home favourite despite poor recent form — just one point from their last five games. Tottenham arrive in a curious state: dreadful at home this season but genuinely competitive on the road, where they average 1.44 points per game. The head-to-head heavily favours Chelsea, who have won 25 of the 45 meetings, and these derbies have averaged 2.91 goals with both teams scoring 51% of the time. Chelsea's home xG of 1.74 against Tottenham's leaky 1.47 away xGA points toward goals. Chelsea's quality edge and home advantage make them favourites, but Tottenham's away resilience keeps this an open, goal-friendly contest.

Manchester City travel to the Vitality Stadium needing a win to keep the title race alive, sitting five points behind Arsenal with two games left. The head-to-head is staggeringly one-sided — City have won 18 of the last 19 meetings — yet Bournemouth arrive on the longest unbeaten run in the division this season at 16 games, and are unbeaten in eight at home. City's away xG of 1.72 against Bournemouth's 1.11 home xGA suggests the visitors will create chances, and with both attacks productive, this fixture has averaged 3.63 goals across recent meetings. City are the form pick on quality and motivation, but Bournemouth's resilience makes the goals markets the standout angle.

Premier League leaders Arsenal host already-relegated Burnley needing a win to keep title pressure on Manchester City. The Gunners have won all 10 home meetings against already-relegated sides since 1992 — the best 100% record of its kind in the competition — and have kept three clean sheets in their last five. Burnley are the worst away defence in the division: 45 goals conceded on the road and not a single away clean sheet all season. Arsenal's home xG of 1.85 against Burnley's weak 0.99 away output points to a comfortable home win, though Burnley have scored in 78% of away games, keeping BTTS live above 60%.

Manchester United close their home campaign sitting 3rd, already guaranteed Champions League football under interim boss Michael Carrick. The Red Devils' 23-game scoring run ended at Sunderland, but Old Trafford remains a fortress — just one defeat in final home league games across 18 seasons. Bruno Fernandes is one assist from equalling the division's all-time record, a strong personal motivator. Nottingham Forest arrive unbeaten in 8 (W4 D4), their best league run since 1995-96, but a heavy injury list undermines their defence. United's home xG of 1.95 against Forest's modest away output points to a comfortable home win with goals. The data tilts firmly toward United, with the goals markets offering value.

A David Moyes derby of sorts as Everton host Sunderland in the penultimate gameweek, with just one point separating them. Everton end their first season at the Hill Dickinson Stadium — a ground yet to become a fortress, with the Toffees winning only 33% of home games. Everton's recent matches have turned chaotic: at least three goals in each of their last six. However, they have conceded twice in all five games of their current winless run. Sunderland arrive with the league's fourth-best clean-sheet record but have managed just two points from their last four and lack a cutting edge away from home (away xG only 1.10). With Ballard suspended, Sunderland's defence is weakened. The reverse fixture and FA Cup tie both ended level — a tight, low-scoring contest looks likely.

Brentford's slim Champions League hopes continue as they host Crystal Palace in their penultimate home game. Eighth-placed Brentford need Brighton and Bournemouth to slip, but Keith Andrews' side have stumbled — D5 L2 W1 in their last eight, failing to score in four of them. Still, they are unbeaten in four at the Gtech. Crystal Palace are safe and firmly focused on their Conference League final on May 27, meaning Oliver Glasner is expected to rotate heavily — Wharton, Kamada and others may be rested. Palace have lost their last three away league games and failed to score in three of their last five. Brentford's home xG of 1.39 against a likely-weakened Palace XI tilts this towards the hosts, though their own goal drought tempers confidence. Expect a tight game with the home side edging it.

Leeds United host Brighton at a celebratory Elland Road, already safe and enjoying a remarkable campaign under Daniel Farke. The Whites are unbeaten in eight league games and have scored 11 in their last five while conceding just five. Elland Road has not seen a home defeat in three. However, history is firmly against them: Leeds have not beaten Brighton in eight meetings, with the Seagulls winning 12 of the 21 all-time clashes. Brighton arrive chasing a top-five finish under Fabian Hurzeler, having taken 22 points from a possible 30 across their last ten. Their away form is a concern though — winless in two on the road. Leeds' superior home xG (1.58) and momentum make them live underdogs at home, but Brighton's greater quality and H2H dominance keep this finely balanced. Goals are likely at both ends.

Already-relegated Wolves host Fulham at Molineux looking for late-season cheer for a disillusioned fanbase. Rob Edwards' side are rooted to the bottom, on a seven-game winless run, and have failed to score in 19 of their 38 league games — just one goal in their last five. Their home xG of 1.18 is among the league's lowest. Fulham arrive 11th, clinging to faint European hopes but in poor form themselves — one win in five, scoring just once across their last five. Marco Silva's side have a wretched away record, with only 16 points and 16 goals on the road all season. Joachim Andersen's suspension forces a reshuffle at the back. This is a meeting of two struggling attacks, but Fulham's greater quality and motivation should be decisive against a Wolves side playing only for pride.

Newcastle host West Ham at St James' Park in what could be the Hammers' final Premier League away game for some time, with relegation looming. Eddie Howe's Newcastle are safe but have endured a frustrating campaign — no team has dropped more points from winning positions (27) or conceded more late goals (20 in the final 15 minutes). Still, the Magpies have netted at least twice in 13 of 18 home games and carry a strong home xG of 1.67. West Ham are 18th and must win to guarantee a shot at survival, but they have failed to score in three straight away games and their away xGA of 1.86 is alarming. Crucially, both teams have scored in each of Newcastle's last nine home games — a powerful BTTS signal. With the highest goals projection of the round (3.11 average), this has the makings of an open, high-scoring finale.