World Cup 2026 Dark Horses

Morocco wrote history in Qatar 2022 as the first African nation ever to reach a World Cup semi-final, beating Belgium, Spain and Portugal on the way. The biggest question: can lightning strike twice? Walid Regragui has kept the spine intact — Achraf Hakimi (PSG) anchors a defensively-organised side, Sofyan Amrabat controls the midfield, and Hakim Ziyech still has the creative spark to unlock any defence. The 2022 run was no fluke; Morocco averaged just 0.71 goals conceded per match in Qatar, a tournament-leading defensive record. Group C with Brazil, Haiti and Scotland is winnable for second place at minimum. If they progress, their knockout draw could be brutal — but as 2022 proved, this is a team that thrives as the underdog.

A nation of four million people has reached a World Cup final (2018) and a semi-final (2022) in the last two tournaments. Luka Modric, at 40, will captain Croatia in his fourth and final World Cup — a swan song for one of the greatest midfielders of his generation. Around him, the supporting cast is stronger than people realise: Mateo Kovacic anchors midfield, Josko Gvardiol (Manchester City) is among the world's best young defenders, and Marcelo Brozovic still provides intelligence in deep midfield. The first match against England (17 June) is a Group L litmus test — if they get a result there, the path opens up. Croatia have a reputation for slow starts but tournament-time resilience: 5 of their last 8 knockout matches went to extra time. That mentality alone makes them dangerous.

Why are the Netherlands at 21.00 when they have arguably the deepest squad outside the top tier? Virgil van Dijk remains a top-3 centre-back globally despite his age (35). Frenkie de Jong is one of the world's best midfielders. The forward line of Cody Gakpo (Liverpool), Memphis Depay (Corinthians) and Xavi Simons (RB Leipzig) is dangerous on its day. The problem has always been Koeman's tactical conservatism — the Oranje don't quite have a top-tier striker, and they rarely play with the freedom that great Dutch teams of the past did. But Group F (Japan, Sweden, Tunisia) is one of the easier groups, and a Round of 16 likely against a Group E side would not be terrifying. At 21.00, this is value betting at its finest — you're getting a top-10 nation at lower-tier odds.

Two-time World Cup champions (1930, 1950) and historically one of football's most respected national teams, Uruguay enter 2026 in a curious position — loaded with talent but in the Group of Death-lite (Group H with Spain). Marcelo Bielsa's tactical intensity has transformed La Celeste into a high-pressing, organised side. Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) is a Top-10 midfielder in the world. Darwin Nunez at Liverpool has finally clicked, and Manuel Ugarte (PSG) provides defensive steel. The 2022 World Cup ended in group-stage disappointment for Uruguay — they were one goal away from progressing. With Bielsa now at the helm and the experience that brings, this is a team that could realistically reach the quarter-finals if the bracket opens up. At 51.00, the value is enormous for a team with this much pedigree.

Senegal face the toughest dark horse path of all — Group I, the Group of Death, alongside France, Norway and Iraq. But of all African nations heading to North America, the Lions of Teranga have the deepest squad. Sadio Mane (Al-Nassr) is the captain and biggest name, but the next generation is exceptional: Ismaila Sarr (Crystal Palace), Lamine Camara (Monaco) and Pape Matar Sarr (Tottenham). Defensively, Kalidou Koulibaly still anchors the back line at 35. Their AFCON 2022 title proved they have the mentality. The trick: if Senegal can take points off Iraq and steal a result from either France or Norway, they could top the group's third-place table for a Last 32 spot. At 81.00, this is a sentimental bet rather than a calculated one — but the squad quality is far higher than the odds suggest.